![]() These towns - Steinhatchee, Cedar Key, Perry, Mayo, Madison, Live Oak, and many others - deserve long-term support and gratitude, as they have absorbed a devastating trolley problem punch in lieu of more densely populated parts of Florida.Ī track just 30 miles farther west would have brought the western eyewall of Idalia into Tallahassee, pushing the manageable 45-60 mph gusts observed into the destructive 80-100 mph range. Overall, there are no tropical threats to Florida over the next 10 days, and hopefully that will continue into the second half of September so devastated Big Bend communities can start the long process of recovery. None of these will be any threat to land. No storm threat to Florida in first half of September as cities rebuild from IdaliaĮlsewhere, befitting the peak of hurricane season, look for one or two more storms to develop through mid-September to the east of Lee. I’m not saying there will be a TC north of D.C., but it can’t yet be eliminated as a possibility. ![]() East Coast are uncommon, but happen predominantly in September when they occur. Tropical cyclone (TC) threats to the northern half of the U.S. The most likely outcome is that Lee remains offshore, but with Lee 10 or more days out, there is sufficient uncertainty in the forecast such that the Eastern Seaboard should keep close tabs on Lee, especially as it will be a strong hurricane. trough and a resilient ridge of west-central Atlantic high pressure does not completely rule out an eventual threat to the mid-Atlantic or New England. On the other hand, the indeterminate details of the squeeze play between that eastern U.S. Unless something very weird happens, that northward movement should occur well east of Florida, and Lee does not look like a threat to the state. All else equal, this protective dip in the jet stream should turn Lee more to the north around this time next week. While the specter of an Irma-like Cape Verde beast is alarming, the good news is that all models show a deep trough of low pressure over the eastern United States six to 10 days from now. The specifics are to be determined, but it is likely that a powerful hurricane will be located south of Bermuda and east of the Bahamas early next week. ![]() Bermuda beware, but Florida should be fine Eastern Seaboard should stay alertĮven this forecast may be a bit conservative, with the hurricane-specific models that performed well with Idalia’s intensity forecast calling for near-Category 5 strength by late in the weekend. The official forecast has Lee as a Category 4 Hurricane by Saturday morning, which is handily the most intensification ever predicted by an initial NHC advisory. Lee will be moving across untouched Tropical Atlantic waters that are two to four degrees warmer than average, with ideal mid-level moisture and upper-level wind conditions for rapid intensification. However, the northern Antilles should monitor Lee carefully, as the intensity expectations for this hurricane are wild. ![]() ![]() Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in around 5 days. This general forward motion will continue into the weekend, and Lee should gain enough latitude to pass safely north of the U.S. As of mid-day Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 13, which became Tropical Storm Lee at 5 p.m.įuture Lee is currently located about halfway between West Africa and the Lesser Antilles, in the heart of the Tropical Atlantic’s Main Development Region, moving west-northwest at about 15 miles per hour. Today, at least, that activity is concentrated in areas where hurricanes are common in September, and does not immediately threaten the continental United States. View Gallery: Hurricane Idalia recovery and clean up underway in wake of storm Most active part of hurricane season begins soon-to-be Lee breaks the National Hurricane Center's power indexĪs Florida’s Gulf Coast again digs out from a regionally devastating and broadly exhausting storm, the Tropics continue to roil entering the historically most active two weeks of the season, in which around one-quarter of the Atlantic’s hurricane activity usually occurs. ![]()
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